Laoye Jaiyeola, chief executive officer (CEO) of NESG, spoke at the third Edition of the Mid-Year Review of 2023 Economic Outlook, organised by the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria Centre for Financial Studies (CIBNCFS), on Tuesday in Lagos.

He said the private sector performance is notably responding favourably to the current policy posture of the new government amid the challenges.

“The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is considered a perfect predictor of economic growth momentum in Nigeria and across the globe,” he said.

“Hence, there is a likelihood for stronger than expected economic growth in the remaining part of 2023 as firms’ new orders, output growth rate, and inventory activities increase.”

Jaiyeola, however, predicted that initial policy shocks might increase inflationary pressure and worsen the cost of living crisis if not properly managed.

He said convergence of foreign exchange market rates would reduce currency risks adding that the new policy regime would stimulate investors’ confidence in the economy.

He added that the monetary policy interest rate would likely rise until the end of the year.

On socio-economic outcomes, Jaiyeola said the initial policy shocks from foreign exchange rates convergence and petroleum subsidy removal would heighten the cost of living.

He said the situation would push more people into the poverty bracket as higher inflationary pressure would erode purchasing power of many households.

Also speaking at the event, Biodun Adedipe, chief consultant, Adedipe Associates Ltd, urged the federal government to learn from countries that had gone through similar problems, to get the economy back on track.

“Are there lessons that we can learn from other jurisdictions especially with our dependence on hydrocarbons; there are countries we can learn from like the Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, which had the same currency trouble because of supply just the same way we are having today?” he asked.

“So what did the government do, they took a very firm stand and the bottom line was that the Malaysian economy recovered the following year.

“How about India? India did the monetisation that we also did in Nigeria but it was a fiasco; that was in 2018.

“The outcome in 2018 showed clearly that the monetisation of an economy that is largely driven by cash within a short window will cause trouble for the economy.

“So, the question should have been for us, when we wanted to do our own thing last year, to ask what lessons we can learn from them. And then take that on board and use that to find a way to execute our own.”

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Ighodalo said this on Monday in his welcome speech at the ongoing 26th Nigerian Economic Summit organised by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group and the Federal Ministry of Finance, Budget and National Planning.

He said for a country in desperate need of development momentum and capital, the events of last month, including the #EndSARS protests, the debilitating riots, and all of the issues that emerged, were bad for morale, confidence, and business.

“Of the $19tn invested in negative-yielding assets globally, none of it has been invested in Nigeria, regardless of what it can earn, because our investment environment has been tagged ‘unwelcoming, unsafe, and unpredictable’,” he said.

According to Ighodalo, at a time when the country’s fiscal space is constrained by low revenues and high debt, the need to strengthen the attractiveness of the investment climate to encourage local and foreign investments is of utmost importance.

He said, “The world does not trust our commitment to the rule of law and the impartiality and efficiency of our dispute resolution processes.

“Our multiple exchange rates, policy flip-flops and perception of how we react to investors, confuses the investing world. These are not labels we can afford particularly now.”

The NESG boss noted that peace and stability remain key investment indicators, saying, “We are in competition with many developing countries across the globe for patient capital.”

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Speaking at the just concluded 25th edition of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group conference, the governor said Nigeria has to look into the size of government.

“We do need to look at the size of government in Nigeria and I am an advocate of a unicameral legislature. What we really need is the house of representatives because that is what represents,” he said.

“You have three senators from little Ekiti and you have three senators from Lagos state. It’s a no-brainer that it’s unequal, I guess the principle is not proportionality but that if you are a state, you get it automatically but I think that we can do away with that. There are several things that we can do away within the government.

“The Oronsaye report that proposed mergers of several MDAs that are doing the same thing is something that the government should pay serious attention to and reduce the resources being expended on them.”

Nigeria’s national assembly consists of a senate with 109 members and a 360-member house of representatives.

Defending the security vote spent by governors, Fayemi, who was also a former minister of mines and steel, said: “Security vote exists in various forms and not just in Nigeria. They may not call it security vote, they may call it contingency vote.

“The important thing is the government utilises a wide range of mechanism to guarantee security in a state and it is not just ammunition and weapons that I am talking about. Even keeping the touts in check is a security challenge in many states and managing that process may cost you money that you cannot necessarily show the auditors.

“The other element which states don’t get credit for is what we do for the federal police. Nigeria is the only federation in the world that I know runs a centralised police force. You have federal police that is not being funded properly by the federal government so the responsibility for funding those guys that are posted to your state is on the state. You buy uniforms, ammunition, pay allowances, do life insurance, buy vehicles; that is not provided for and that is security vote because we are expected to protect the citizens.

“Let me also say this, you will not hear it out there from anybody. When people are kidnapped and their relatives are harassing the governor or security institutions to track down the victims.

“We track them down, we know where they are. What you hear us say outside is that we don’t pay ransom and we stick by that. We don’t pay ransom, we don’t bribe kidnappers but we get those people released.

“I will not go into the ugly details but we spend money in ensuring that we get abductees and victims out of harm’s way because ultimately that is what the victim wants us to do. The parents don’t want to hear the story that we don’t pay a ransom. You just have to whatever you have to do to ensure that we get our citizens out of danger.”

Fayemi was on the panel alongside Babatunde Fowler, executive chairman of the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), Jordi Borrut Bel, Nigerian Breweries MD, and Eme Essien, country manager of the International Finance Corporation (IFC).

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They gave the suggestion during the panel discussion at the 23rd National Economic Summit in Abuja. The discussion also featured the Chief Executive of General Electric in Nigeria, John Rice.

According to Osinbajo, the MSME clinics held in different parts of the country were targeted at youth entrepreneurs to address the fundamentals in the economy and ensure inclusive growth.

Osinbajo stated that government had initiated series of reforms in the economic sector including the need to open a single window for customs clearance for imports and exports but noted that more needed to be done.

He said government also tried to eliminate layers of bureaucracy to make businesses easier and enhance the country’s competitiveness.

He also said that efforts had been made to address local content in all sectors of the economy adding that while the oil and gas sector was not personnel intensive the incremental jobs created by the value chain were important.

He said while power generation had reached 7,000MW, the distribution was epileptic due to poor metering by the distribution companies which would soon be unlocked.

He said government was doing off the grid systems in Ariaria (Abia), Shomolu (Lagos) and Kano to improve power supply.

“What we are doing in infrastructure is important and we want to also complete the roads, railways. We are also focusing on Customs and agro-allied industries.’’

He said regulatory agencies and MDAa were being encouraged to meet the business development timelines adding that very soon a new chief executive would be appointed for NAFDAC and mandated to fasten products registration.

Elumelu chairman of UBA Plc and Heirs Holding , said localisation was synonymous with growth of the SMEs.

According to him for the country to grow the economy, it must focus on SMEs and ensure that the youth were captured in the inclusive growth.

“Localisation should seek to integrate all and create jobs and we need to see growth that is beyond paper work,’’ he stated.

Elumelu, who also chairs the Tony Elumelu Foundations, observed that progress was made in the Ease of Doing business programme but that a lot needed to be done.

He explained that tax issues, power supply, transportation difficulties and business registration problems should be eliminated for rapid industrialization and economic growth.

“We can’t make progress if there is no electricity; government needs to attract more investors in power.

“If we fix electricity in the country, we fix most of the issues and this country will take off fully,’’ he added.

He also suggested that the National Assembly should complement the work of the Executive via legislations that could facilitate economic growth.

On power supply, he suggested that government should still inject funds into it and mandate the private sector in charge of distribution and generation to divest its shares to enable more investors to come in and revive the sector.

The Chief Executive of GE, Rice, described Nigeria as attractive in business due to its large population and vibrancy of the youth adding “this is a great country with great potential’’.

He stated that to attract investors, adequate improvement was needed in power supply as “you cannot have sustainable growth without electricity.’’

He said that while the government tried to perform its role in business development, the private sector should also do its part.

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He made this call while speaking on the topic “Opportunities, Productivity and Employment: Actualizing the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan” at the opening plenary of the 23rd Nigerian Economic Summit with Vice President Yemi Osinbajo and Vice Chairman of General Electric, John Rice.

Speaking on the topic, Vice President Yemi Osinbajo stated that though the government has put in place policies to drive productivity and ease of doing business in Nigeria, more still needs to be done.

He cited the power sector as an area the government has consciously created initiatives to incentivise businesses along the value chain but noted that the sector lacked the right form of investments.

“Even with increasing generating capacity, Tony’s company and some others have obviously improved generation capacity, and generation has improved considerably, but that last mile – distribution, is absolutely important. We need plenty of investment, especially in distribution,” he said.

While commending the government on its initiatives and N760billion intervention in the power sector, Elumelu said that the sector should be market driven to create sustainability.

He urged the government to consider recapitalizing the leveraged DISCO entities in the sector to allow capable and competent investors come in to bail out the struggling ones that are pulling the power sector back. as these investors are “If we fix power in Nigeria, we will increase our ease of doing business and make life significantly easier for investors, the SMES and Entrepreneurs we are trying to nurture and indeed, every Nigerian,” he said.

Elumelu also identified the creative sector as having a huge potential and the capability to create millions of jobs if the government addresses its some of its critical challenges such as piracy and intellectual rights that will enable the sector flourish.

Addressing the urgent need to prioritise SMEs, Elumelu noted that the country desperately needed a mechanism for job creation to address inclusiveness and sustainable development.

“SMEs are the engine of growth. When they succeed, they recruit, they train people and when the likes of GE come on board they have a ready ecosystem and pipeline of ‎supply chain players that will support what they are doing. To get it right we need to continue to prioritise our SMEs and improve the environment for SMEs to succeed,” Elumelu said.

The Vice Chairman of General Electric (GE), John Rice, responded to the need for localisation of the economy, urging the government to focus on improving infrastructure and the speed of government bureaucracy to attract and retain foreign investors and partners.

“The government needs to begin to measure itself on speed as it begins to implement its reforms,” he said Elumelu, who is also the Founder of The Tony Elumelu Foundation, has been a prominent advocate for an entrepreneurially and private sector-led economy as the key to unlocking growth and development. His Foundation has committed $100million to mentor, train and invest in 10,000 African SMEs over a 10-year period with 3,000 entrepreneurs incubated so far.

This weekend, over 1300 entrepreneurs from 54 African countries, as well as the full African entrepreneurship ecosystem, will gather in Lagos for The Tony Elumelu Foundation Entrepreneurship Forum – the largest gathering of African entrepreneurs.

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The two top officials have not had the best of relations since last week Tuesday when a letter Kachikwu wrote to President Muhammadu Buhari accusing Baru of insubordination and corruption surfaced online.

With Baru’s reply still generating ripples in the media, it seemed unlikely both officials would come together soon. But, during the third planery session of the Nigerian Economic Summit, NES 23 in Abuja on Tuesday, both spoke of a stronger, more encompassing regulatory authority that would soon emerge in petroleum industry after the passage of the Petroleum Industry Bill, PIB.

Kachikwu said the government was still working to make the regulatory environment in the industry better, pointing out that by the time the National Assembly completes its work on the PIB, “a much stronger, a much larger independent regulator would emerge.

“Whatever model of PIB that we are pushing, the point that Dr. Baru made is very, very key,” he said referring to the NNPC boss.

“To see an independent regulator with very enormous powers, with less of political interference so that individuals could do their work and also whittle down the powers of the minister, so that these institutions could work and work well.

“The reality is that no one will work as a minister forever. You are going to hand over that portfolio. We should be looking for the system surviving and able to work well. So, it’s something that we are working with the National Assembly very hard on and I think if you look at the issues that come up, there are a lot of emphasis on that independence.”

He said government would develop policies that would ensure the global decline in fossil energy does not take Nigeria unawares any more, adding that government was already thinking in that direction.

‎The minister, who was the moderator in the panel on energy, said the government was currently dealing with the fundamentals‎ of ensuring the refineries worked, while ensuring the availability of energy sources to meet the country’s day to day needs.‎ ‎

On the forthcoming marginal fields bidding round, Kachikwu said government was determined to ensure transparency in the process, to give the public all that they need to know about who gets what and able to monitor the progress.

‎‎He said these were some of the issues the Niger Delta communities, and indeed all Nigerians, were always inquiring about.

“The more transparent it is, the better for us. We are developing models to ensure better regulations geared towards transparency in the bidding process, and we would alert Mr. President as soon as we are done,” Kachikwu said.

‎Earlier, Baru, lamented that previous marginal field bidding rounds has not achieved the objectives the government set out to achieve, saying only nine out 14 of those who won the licenses were operational.

Describing this as “not good enough”, Baru said he was committed to work closely with the minister to address the concerns and constraints that hindered the remaining five companies from appropriately operating the marginal oil fields.”

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Chairman of Heirs Holding and United Bank for Africa (UBA) Tony Elumelu made the call on the sidelines of the ongoing 23rd Nigerian Economic Summit holding in Abuja.

Elumelu noted that “in as much as some existing investors might like the idea, the federal government could not continue to allow the Discos hold the nation down with inefficient power distribution.”

His solution to the epileptic power supply in the country is the “recapitalization of the Discos and then increase its stake from the current 49 per cent to 51 per cent and sell the controlling stakes to new investors, as the current operators have become obstacles to the realization of the nation’s power capacity goal.”

According to him, “our people are very enterprising and they want to succeed. But they need the right environment to succeed. I appreciate what the government is doing for electricity but we need to do more. I empathize with the government on its efforts in that sector. But Mr. Vice President, I think there is a lot we can do to correct the ownership of that sector without affecting the property rights of the investors. That sector must be dealt with it for us to have power to do business.”

He added that “government, with over N700 billion provided, in a few months’ time, that will be exhausted. The market should be able to sustain itself. This is what I think. The government has to take actions that will ensure the adequate funding of the operations of the Discos.

“Mr. V.P, I know some of the operators in this sector will not like this. This is my idea. We cannot reverse what has been done. But we can creatively address what has been done.

“If government to my understanding has 49 per cent of the Discos and the private companies have 51. Can we ask these companies to recapitalize? Let the FG recapitalize. They will not be able to put in more capital. So the federal government through the Federal Ministry of Finance Incorporated should increase federal government holding.

“Then post recapitalization, the federal government sells its controlling shares to new investors who have the financial wherewithal to properly finance the operations of the Discos. This is important because in a situation where current operators don’t have the funds to run them, if the federal government wants to sell its shares in the discos, investors who should have brought in their capital won’t come in if the controlling shares continue to remain with the current operators.

“When this is done, then we can have new investors who can come in and run the Discos efficiently. It doesn’t matter where they come from but they should be investors who have the financial capacity and tested expertise to manage the distribution segment of the sector in such a way that they can deliver effective service.”

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In a breakthrough for Nigeria, the group of WTO Friends of Investment Facilitation for Development (FIFD) pledged support for the success of the High-Level Investment Forum taking place in Abuja on the 3rd and 4th of November, co-hosted by the Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment and the Economic Community of West Africa (ECOWAS) Commission in partnership with FIFD.

Investment Facilitation for Development is an initiative by some WTO members including Nigeria as a core member to constructively and progressively drive trade and investment with concrete deliverables in mind.

This WTO Investment Coalition is made of Nigeria, Argentina, China, Australia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Pakistan, Russia, Singapore, Switzerland, Canada and the European Union.

A draft declaration is being negotiated for finalization at the WTO in Geneva, Switzerland, as part of the deliverables for the Buenos Aires, Argentina, Ministerial Conference in December.

“Nigeria is part of this coalition because we see investment and trade facilitation as a positive and pro-development agenda, and ensure that the WTO is better responsive to domestic economic priorities,” said the Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment Dr. Okechukwu

“This Investment Facilitation Initiative is potentially significant to position WTO better to respond to the investment needs of developing countries, in general and African countries in particular,” he added.

In his remarks, the Director General/Chief Negotiator of the Nigerian Office for Trade Negotiations (NOTN) Ambassador Chiedu Osakwe expressed delight at the progress made so far, saying: “This is for economic growth and recovery, creation of employment opportunities and connection to global value chains.”

The Abuja event titled “High-Level Forum on Trade and Investment Facilitation for Development” is expected to bring together African Investment and Trade decision makers as well private sector representatives to share perspectives on leveraging trade and investment opportunities on the continent. It seeks to connect actual investors within and outside the continent with African policy makers in order to produce concrete outcomes.

At the concluding session of the WTO Ministerial in Marrakech, Edward Yau, Hong Kong China Trade and Industry Secretary, in reporting to the Ministerial Meeting, invited the WTO to ensure the success of the Abuja event on trade and investment facilitation.

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The summit which is scheduled to hold at the Transcorp Hilton, Abuja from October 10 – 12, 2017, will highlight the significant role of public-private sector dialogue in national transformation.

The event is projected to drive “consciousness and build national consensus on what is urgently required to rebuild, revamp and reinforce public-private dialogue for a collaborative and an all-inclusive economic growth”.

It would also be a platform to articulate the Federal Government’s Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) as well as drive stakeholders’ deliberation on the practical issues, opportunities, policies and regulations required to facilitate an enabling environment for the actualization of the much needed economic recovery and growth plan.

Mrs. Ibukun Awosika, Chairman, First Bank of Nigeria Limited will be hosting a dinner to deliberate on ‘Entrepreneurship and Employability’ in conversation with a panel of young people on the 2nd day of the summit, October 11, 2017.

According to the MD/CEO, First Bank of Nigeria Limited and Subsidiaries, Dr. Adesola Adeduntan, “FirstBank would continue to support initiatives that would bolster enterprising conversations on nation building and development to stimulate structural and fiscal changes required to strengthen the Nigerian economy.

“The Bank has constantly collaborated with NESG in their mission to drive the agenda for a greater Nigeria as part of FirstBank’s thought leadership and policy influencing initiatives.”

President Muhammadu Buhari is expected to declare NES#23 open and lead the Insight session with eminent personalities and key captains of industries, while other sessions at the event would include the: Entrepreneurship and Employability Session; National Assembly Business Environment Roundtable; Start-Up Pitching and Venture Networking Session; and Policy Commission Breakout Sessions for relevant Ministries.

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The Special Assistant (New Media) to the Senate President, Bamikole Omishore, in a statement, said the event is being organized by the 8th National Assembly in partnership with the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), the Nigeria Bar Association – Section on Business Law (NBA-SBL) and supported by the U.S. Department for International Development – Enhancing Nigeria Advocacy for a Better Business Environment (DFID-ENABLE) program.

Omishore stated that the event would highlight and celebrate the success of NASSBER so far and consider several aspects of NASSBER’s role and legacy in promoting a competitive economy and healthy business environment.

He said it would also appraise the benefits of collaboration between the legislature and the private sector; as well as the inauguration of the Steering Committee, Technical Committee and Working Groups.

He said: “The NASSBER Anniversary and Annual Dialogue Event will play host to top government and business leaders with keynote addresses to be presented by the Senate President, Dr. Abubakar Bukola Saraki and the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Rt. Hon. Yakubu Dogara, while Dr. Doyin Salami, will examine the effect of NASSBER interventions on the business environment and the Nigerian economy.

“In addition, there will be an interactive session to explore and discuss legislative interventions to actualise the theme: “Creating Opportunity through Legislation” for local businesses.

“The occasion affords stakeholders the opportunity to review NASSBER’s accomplishment in year one and also shape the agenda for the platform in 2018 by setting out a policy and legislative framework to support Made-In-Nigeria goods and services, thereby boosting competitiveness and economic growth,” he stated.

According to the statement, “NASSBER is a public-private platform established in March 2016 that brings critical stakeholders from the private sector, legislature and executive to debate, deliberate and advocate a coherent legal framework to advance business environment legislations through the National Assembly.

“Since its inception, the platform has made significant strides and a number of business environment (BE) related bills are at different stages of consideration and passage in both chambers of the National Assembly.”

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