Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves have dipped by $34.58 billion, a 10.25 per cent decline year-to-date. The reserves stood at $38.53 billion on January 2 and have been drawn down by $3.95 billion in the last three months.
There are new fears of further devaluation of the naira due to dip in foreign exchange earnings and reserves as crude oil prices continue to decline.
The naira has tumbled to its weakest level in five years in the parallel market at N415 to a dollar, widening the gap with an official rate of N360 to a dollar. The naira has continued to come under pressure despite COVID-19 lockdown that slowed economic activities and reduced import demand for the dollar.
Given Nigeria’s reliance on crude oil for 90 per cent of foreign exchange revenue, the stability of the naira depends largely on crude oil prices, which have disappointed in recent months. The extended drop in oil prices is increasing pressure on the naira, with continuation around the $25 a barrel levels posing a risk of further devaluation.
Afrinvest Securities Head of Research Abiodun Keripe said a second level naira adjustment was inevitable. “Agreeably, there is relatively slow down on economic activities, which have moderated pressure on the naira. As activities return to normal after the COVID-19 lockdown, and businesses begin to demand more dollars to cover import needs, there will be renewed pressure on the naira, and a second level adjustment will occur.”
Keripe said whatever gain would be made through the OPEC‘s decision to cut oil production will have little or no effect on the state of the reserves and Nigeria’s dollar earnings, making further devaluation of the naira inevitable.
In a report titled: ‘Low Oil Pressures Naira’, Trading Desk Manager, at AZA (a non-bank currency broker), Murega Mungai, said: “The naira tumbled to its weakest level in five years in the parallel market at 415 per dollar, widening the gap with an official rate of 380. Given Nigeria’s reliance on crude for 90 per cent of foreign exchange revenue, all eyes are on the oil markets. The extended drop in oil prices today will increase pressure on the naira, with continuation around the $25 a barrel levels posing a risk of further devaluation.”