Agusto & Co, a Pan-African credit rating agency, projects that Nigeria’s total pension assets will rise to an impressive N19 trillion by the end of 2024.
The agency’s projection is contained in its recently released report titled ‘The Nigerian Pension Industry – Unlocking Potential Amidst Economic Uncertainties’.
Agusto said Nigeria has the second-largest pension industry in Africa with assets under management (AuM) of N16.1 trillion ($34.9 billion) as at May 31, 2023, representing a 13.5 percent increase from the corresponding period in the prior year.
The agency said the 13.5 percent growth was primarily fueled by robust investment returns and, to a lesser extent, by additional contributions, mirroring the patterns observed in other well-established pension markets.
Agusto also said the pension industry witnessed a notable increase in the number of new contributors, surpassing 300,000 individuals.
The firm said the pension industry continues to operate within a highly regulated environment, positioning itself as a significant player in the financial services sector.
It commended the National Pension Commission (PenCom) for its commitment to implementing initiatives aimed at bolstering transparency and fostering active engagement in pension schemes.
“Going forward, Agusto & Co. foresees a 13% year-on-year growth in the pension industry’s AuM, propelling the total pension assets to an impressive ₦19 trillion by the end of 2024,” the report reads.
“We envision that this growth will be supported by an anticipated increase in rates on fixed-income securities, specifically bank placements and a continued upswing in the stock market.
“Agusto & Co. is optimistic that the current rally in the equities market, marked by an impressive 27.37% surge in the NGX All-Share Index (ASI) in the past one year, underpinned by the raft of reforms ushered in by the new government, will be sustained in the near term.
“Given the NGX’s bullish stance in the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE), we expect PFAs to realign their investment portfolios to capitalise on favourable market conditions, which could potentially amplify investment returns in the near to medium term.
“Furthermore, Agusto & Co. firmly believes that the steady rise in contributions will be driven by robust regulatory oversight and increasing awareness of the micro pension scheme.”
The firm, however, said that increased emigration, job losses, and rising inflation may pose a significant risk to its growth projection.
Agusto said the above mentioned factors have the potential to impede pension asset growth by delivering negative real returns on investments.