An international rating agency, Teneo Intelligence, has said that the All Progressives Congress, APC, for the March 28 presidential election, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari is gaining momentum over the incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan.
Teneo’s Analyst Manji Cheto, in a note released on Friday thinks that the former military leader and challenger has “an edge,” but that “a last-minute upset by the incumbent president remains a possibility.”
“President Goodluck Jonathan is banking on recent reports of the ‘successful’ counterinsurgency offensive against Boko Haram to help turn the tide on his battered reputation. However, the momentum of Jonathan’s rival Muhammadu Buhari of the main opposition All Progressive Congress continues to grow,” Cheto said.
Despite the absence of reliable polling data in Nigeria, Cheto said that the most important signal that Buhari could unseat the president is the change in the voting trend this time round.
“Buhari’s support in the north (his home region) appears to be unwavering – he has consistently defeated his rivals there in the past three election cycles. This support is only likely to increase thanks to a growing anti-Jonathan sentiment in the region.
“Buhari’s strong momentum represents a serious threat to many powerful business and political interests that have benefitted from the incumbent People’s Democratic Party’s 16-year political dominance. Consequently, entrenched interests will not easily concede a Buhari victory.”
Eurasia Group had last week cited polls and trends that indicate Buhari could have a 60 percent chance of winning, depending on how a considerable tranche of uncommitted voters leans.
Teneo Intelligence said that Boko Haram is a force to reckon with no matter who wins: African nations headed by Chad are seeking United Nations approval for a joint force to combat the terrorist group in Nigeria.
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